Source: Channel N12
By: Kobi Marum
👈The prime minister left for Miami, in preparation for a meeting with Trump, on a visit that will affect Israel's position in the region
While all the battlefields – Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and Iran – have become open and unstable; on the eve of the summit, clear gaps in interests appear between Israel and the United States, especially in the Trump administration's preference for the Turkey - Qatar axis, which it sees as part of the solution on the Gaza and Syria arenas; from Israel's point of view, the axis of the Muslim Brotherhood, led by Turkey and Qatar, is a dangerous strategic problem, highlighted by the absence of Ron Dermer from the one of the two leaders of this meeting.
Trump's vision for Gaza :the second phase and Turkish troops
For Trump, the central arena is Gaza; he needs an achievement, as a global peacemaker; so far, the successes have not been dramatic, although the liberation of the kidnapped he has achieved is a great achievement for Israel. He has put all his personal prestige in Gaza, and he is obliged to show everyone progress, and from his point of view, he will not allow Israel, nor Hamas, to thwart this progress.
Therefore, Trump will demand that Netanyahu move forward with the agreement and move on to the second stage. According to the agreement, approval of the transition to the second phase includes an Israeli withdrawal up to the Orange Line, the deployment of stabilization forces in the entire Gaza Strip, possibly also Turkish troops, and the start of reconstruction projects in the Rafah area. Moreover, there is talk of establishing a Peace Council headed by him, and starting the process of forming a government of technocrats to replace the "Hamas"government.
"Hamas is interested in moving to the second phase because it is getting an Israeli withdrawal, and at the same time, it is strengthening its strength and remaining firmly in control of the Gaza Strip in the coming months.
Trump appointed the commander of the special forces at the US Central Command (CENTCOM), General Jasper (Jasper) as the commander of the stabilization force, and during the month of January, he intends to announce the start of the implementation of the second phase and the deployment of the stabilization force on the ground in a large official ceremony. This force, which will also include Turkish troops, will, in my estimation, be deployed on the streets, impose order and cleanliness, take responsibility for humanitarian assistance, and begin to clear the rubble, and thus, will actually begin to show manifestations of governance throughout the Gaza Strip, instead of the "Hamas"forces.
As for the dismantling of "Hamas", the force will begin by identifying the organization's warehouses and infrastructure, and at least formally, it will begin by confiscating them. But, in my estimation, the Turkish force operating in the western part will not actually dismantle Hamas, but will do so "with a wink", and with the revolving door mechanism, that is, only a formal dismantling, while the main interest of it and Qatar is to preserve Hamas ' interests in the strip the next day.
Netanyahu's aspirations
Netanyahu wants the Iranian issue, as well as the Lebanese and Syrian issues, to be part of the meeting, and to return from the summit to Israel to tell the Israeli public that there is progress towards the second phase in Gaza, according to the agreement, in preparation for the dismantling of "Hamas", while Israel remains in control of a large area of the Strip.
Netanyahu seeks to offer strategic understandings with the Trump administration in the Lebanese and Syrian contexts, and in front of the central enemy – Iran. The Americans are trying to remove obstacles from the second stage, and to decide the composition of the forces that will be deployed in Gaza, as part of the stabilization force, but the problem is that a large part of the countries are not ready to confront "Hamas", except for the Turks, who see here an opportunity for influence and regional dominance as a rising Middle Eastern power.
The US administration is afraid that Israel will try to obstruct the implementation of the next stages of the agreement, and it was very angry with the liquidation of Raed Saad, and imposed clear restrictions on Israel on the subject of shooting incidents near the yellow line, as well as the gas deal signed between Israel and Egypt, so it came with American pressure to bring the two parties closer, in preparation for the implementation of the second stage, as Egypt will have an important role in the reconstruction of the Strip, including the opening of the Rafah crossing.
the Iranian corner and regional squares
The Trump administration and Israel came to the conclusion, after the "people like Assad" operation, that without the overthrow of the regime in Iran, it will not be possible to achieve change in the Middle East, nor prevent the reconstruction of the Iranian axis. There is complete intelligence coordination and a clear realization that the Iranians have made a decision on the rehabilitation of the axis and their proxies, mainly Hezbollah, and the rehabilitation of the nuclear program, including the recruitment of nuclear scientists, despite the big blow received.
Soleimani's vision of the"ring of fire" around Israel is still alive, and the Iranians have begun to rebuild the ballistic missile system and purchase a new air defense system from China.
Netanyahu's entourage is creating a sense of imminent escalation with Iran, as a clear message to the Trump administration of the need to reach decisive understandings on this matter, and also to divert attention from domestic issues on the agenda, such as the service exemption law. In fact, there are no real indications that Iran, in its current situation, is planning an attack on Israel.
Netanyahu will ask for decisive coordination with Trump, so that if negotiations on a new nuclear agreement do not lead to a comprehensive agreement on the issue of ballistic missiles until spring, there will be close coordination and commitment from Trump on a large-scale joint attack by Israel and the United States to topple the regime.
It is important to pay attention to two factors of the American schedule: the World Cup in the United States in June 2026, and the midterm elections to Congress in November 2026.
the Syrian and Lebanese arenas
With regard to the Syrian arena, against the background of the events of the massacre in Sweida, and despite Al-Shara's successful visit to Washington, Israel realizes that the Syrian President cannot be relied on in light of the fragile reality in Syria, and the conditions have not matured to sign a security agreement with him. Sharia is facing radical Sunni opposition, and it needs to take control of parts of the state, reach understandings with minorities (Kurds, Alawites, Druze), and rebuild the army. The Americans support Turkish assistance to Sharia, but from Israel's point of view, any Turkish involvement in the Golan is a red line; Trump will ask Israel to allow Sharia to establish its rule and move to an improved separation agreement.
As for the Lebanese arena, Netanyahu believes that the Lebanese army did not succeed in dismantling Hezbollah in the southern Litani area, therefore, he will ask Trump to allow Israel to continue controlling a strip inside Lebanese territory with five control points, and to allow the Israeli army continuous freedom of action in the face of Hezbollah violations. They realize in Israel that the Lebanese army needs additional time, under the Israeli threat of fighting for days, and in coordination with the Trump administration, to stop the reconstruction of Hezbollah.
👈A strategic crossroads
The meeting between the two leaders is an important stop regarding Israel's ability to capitalize on the achievements of the war. There is a need for a courageous leadership that knows how to make political decisions to create a better regional reality for Israeli national security, in cooperation with the United States and the moderate Sunni axis, and favoring the axis of the "Muslim Brotherhood", led by Turkey and Qatar, carries serious risks against Israel. However, Israel's failure to strategically manage the battle for more than two years, the lack of initiative, and the evasion of making decisions on the alternative from Hamas, creates a situation in which Israel receives dictates from the United States on the future of Gaza, contrary to its interests.
There are big question marks over the ability to dismantle Hamas and prevent its continued rule – these are the goals for which we went to war, and constitute a moral obligation to the residents of the Gaza envelope
The article ended
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# Analysis _ Hebrew
